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Iran : Big slaps at the UNO

On the beginning of the week, Americans and their allies implied they would adopt already with Russia’s support a new resolution and why not sanctions at the time of the extraordinary meeting of the Security Council in the margin of the UNO General Assembly. This was highly improbable because Tehran would have withdrawn then its 1st October Geneva meeting. Besides Tehran didn’t comment much those rumors. The Council met and even didn’t talk about Iran. As revenge it adopted a resolution that won’t favor Tehran’s business : “the establishment of a denuclearized world”.

Within one week, a representative from the mullahs’ regime will meet representatives of the Six’s group in Geneva. The aim of such meeting we describe as the last-ditch one is obviously the Iranian nuclear program. But Tehran accepted this meeting on the sole condition that this subject won’t be tackled except from the whole world disarmament, i.e. the dismantling of the Six’s arsenals -the 5 permanent members of the Security Council including Germany.

Actually Tehran set such condition because it thought that it found a taboo matter that would be immediately rejected by the Six as every of them are nuclear powers.

Tehran resorted to this stratagem because it cannot on no account have peaceful relations with the United States, ally and protector par excellence of Israel. Such appeasement would be considered as a betrayal by the Arab street which is needed by Tehran to destabilize the region. If this ideological link would happen to break off, Tehran would find difficulties to keep the Hezbollah, its regional armed body, despite the fact it created it and has financed it generously since 26 years. This explains the absolute necessity to remain the sworn opponent by the use of slogans, diplomatic efforts to initiate anti-Israeli coalitions and also deliberate and tensing insinuations regarding its military -ballistic or nuclear- strength.

To charm the Arab street, Tehran needs endlessly to exaggerate its strengths which expose it to sanctions. Nowadays it has reached a point of no return because those sanctions penalize it heavily. However if it would make a step backward, the Arab street would know that it isn’t cut out to be its cause’s champion. But if it would carry on, it would risk heavier sanctions. Thus it needed to accept this dialogue in order to escape immediate sanctions by avoiding backing down ideologically : Tehran offered some dialogue but it was about the subject of its choosing in order to show it is a powerful State, worthy of the Arab street’s respect. It chose the issue of the dismantling of the Six’s nuclear arsenal while it banked on their categorical refusal.

Contrary to every expectation, Americans and then other members of the Six accepted in order to pull it to the negotiation table and show some forced appeasement in order to discredit it with regards to its basic speech. As it was behind this dialogue offer, Tehran couldn’t go back on its word. Then it requested to postpone the date after the latest deadline that was fixed by the Six : the latter again accepted. As it turned put out, Tehran displayed its array of slogans or tensing threats by denying the holocaust, by exulting publicly about the indignation this raised, by calling for Israel’s eradication right before it announced some new nuclear progress on the day it made its great-sized missiles parade while slogans of death to Israel and death to America appeared again. The Six didn’t break the process.

Tehran still disposed of a card to put on Geneva’s table by accusing its adversaries of inviting it to a sterile meeting. This hope got failed yesterday night with the unanimous adoption at the Security Council -that met exceptionally on a level with heads of State and with Obama’s presiding- of a resolution that was written by the United States that calls every UNO members for starting every necessary step to “establish a denuclearized world”and that particularly insist on the fact this would also concern States such as Israel which didn’t sign the non-proliferation agreement.

It’s a huge slap for the mullahs because on the one hand they won’t be able to mention again their slogan of “Americans’ double standards”. On the second hand they will also need to open their nuclear sites to inspection in order to conform to this resolution 1887 that is 100% conform in substance to the central element of their proposal package for the resolution of the Iranian nuclear crisis.

We can assess the mullahs’ disappointment through their reaction : nothing about the resolution’s text but some attack against the meeting’s holding ! They tackled the sentiments Nicolas Sarkozy expressed. This impromptu attack left French people, the current scapegoat, perplexed.

Actually this was fury -that was increased by the massive boycott of Ahmadinejad’s speech. If the mullahs or even their representative Ahmadinejad would be sincere, they would have saluted the Security Council because it paid attention to their directive. But through their reaction, they showed that this meeting offer about arsenals dismantling was solely an attempt to block dialogue by shifting the blame on their adversaries.

While they are conscious that such failed attempt could be followed with some new Iranian maneuver to make the meeting derail, Americans also informed that in margin of this Security Council extraordinary meeting they exchanged views with other members of the Six -particularly Russians- and agreed on the necessity to adopt sanctions if Tehran would continue “to not respect its international commitments”.

From now on Tehran doesn’t dispose of any room for maneuver but one problem remains : despite the fact he maintained his refusal outline President Obama didn’t give Tehran any deadline to respect its commitments. Obama keeps his objective of obtaining an agreement with this regime that is useful to make his regional projects of Central Asia’s conquest come true. One more time everything depends on this factor.

The french version of this article :
- Iran : Grosses gifles à l’Onu
- (25 Septembre 2009)

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| Mots Clefs | Décideurs : OBAMA |
| Mots Clefs | Décideurs : P5+1 (les Six) |

| Mots Clefs | Enjeux : Sanctions (du Conseil de Sécurité) |
| Mots Clefs | Zone géopolitique / Sphère d’influence : ONU |

| Mots Clefs | Institutions : Diplomatie (selon les mollahs) |
| Mots Clefs | Nucléaire : Politique Nucléaire des mollahs |
| Mots Clefs | Enjeux : Rôle régional de l’Iran |