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Iran : More enrichment to make the Six hopeless

Yesterday morning, before the beginning of the G20 Summit, Obama, Sarkozy and Brown denounced all together the secret building of some second enrichment plant in Iran. Every of them stated they knew about such construction but they were disturbed by the fact such information were disclosed by the mullahs’ regime itself ! The Six attempted to minimize this new stratagem which was made by Tehran to make the dialogue derail.

The building in Tehran of a second enrichment plant is a true time bomb. Yesterday CNN pondered the reasons of such disclosure and considered it as a mysterious one. Such noticing results from a double ignorance of the Iranian nuclear crisis but also of the mullahs’ regime. This is not the first time Tehran spreads information about its nuclear progress which is liable to harm any appeasement with the Six : it’s even the basic element of this crisis.

Provocations | Each time the Six manage to combine thanks to their efforts the conditions of some appeased dialogue about the Iranian nuclear program, the mullahs’ regime mentions the installing of some new generation of centrifuge, the installing of a great number of centrifuge or else it announces missile fires that are liable to make people doubt a possible nuclear military declension.

Motivations | As we specified it in our latest analysis, Tehran behaves this way with the Six because it cannot in any case accept a pacified dialogue with the United States because this State is par excellence Israel’s protector and ally. Such appeasement would be considered as a betrayal by the Arab street which is needed by Tehran to destabilize the region. If this ideological link would happen to break off, Tehran would find difficulties to keep the Hezbollah, its regional armed body, despite the fact it created it and has financed it generously since 26 years. Without the Hezbollah, the mullahs’ regime doesn’t dispose of any military power.

Overstatement | It results from some absolute necessity for the regime to remain against any appeasement and also exaggerate its military strengths so to charm the Arab street. Such deliberate crisis increase permits Tehran to push for escalation in order to create the fear for a war that would hit Ormuz Strait and urge every great industrial country which depends on the Persian Gulf oil to pressurize the United States and make it stop sanctioning Iran.

Sanctions | By denying any cooperation, the regime lays open to financial sanctions. Those sanctions deprive it from currency entries. Such income loss is a tragic situation for the mullahs’ regime : two years ago, the regime cut oil subventions and we’ve just been informed that since 3 years the metro of Tehran has been unable to purchase the parts that are necessary to maintain engines. This country heads toward paralysis even without the adoption of any fuel sanction.

In order to avoid further sanction, it would be enough that the regime capitulates from its positions by accepting to dialogue with the United States. While it’s conscious of the impossibility of such dialogue and of the danger of those sanctions, on the 9 September 2009, Tehran accepted to meet the Six but with the firm intention to urge its adversaries -and particularly Americans- to slam the negotiations door behind.

Excuses | The first trail was to offer a very polemical agenda that had no link with the disputes : on the 13 September, the Six accepted to involve it into some forced appeasement. Thus Tehran tried to get on their nerves by postponing the date beyond the deadline that was previously fixed by the Six : the latter accepted again and the appointment was made on the 1st October. Then the next difficulty was to find the meeting place : finally Geneva was chosen.

As it doesn’t know what to do to urge the Six and among them mostly Americans to slam the door behind, the regime took up again negationist statements on the occasion of the Qods Day ; this resulted in nothing despite sentiments overstatement.

On the 21 September, Tehran played for high stake with the announcement in the press of a new generation of centrifuge that is being tested in Natanz and that is 5 times more powerful -i.e. in contradiction with AIEA’s latest report that mentioned some deliberate slow down to show Tehran’s good will. This announcement was followed with a letter to AEIA that put forward a second enrichment plant. With old centrifuge whose aspect is identical to the current model that is in activity in Natanz and that is supposedly different from those inside and with some empty building, Tehran makes the pressure move up a notch.

The day after, the regime made its old North Korean missiles parade with inscriptions such as “Death to Israel” or “Death to America”. Given that every signatory State of the NPT disposes of ambassadors at the AEIA, Tehran expected that such media time bomb would explode before Ahmadinejad’s visit in New York to the UNO General Assembly. It hoped it would give rise to fiery statements about sanctions reinforcement before the 1st October meeting. This would have given the mullahs’ regime the opportunity to boycott this meeting.

Sidestepping | As they are conscious of Tehran’s trick, the Six and particularly Americans didn’t slam the negotiations door behind. They refrained from making any comment and when at last they mentioned it to the press point right before the beginning of the G20 Summit they avoided any untimely statement so to not give the mullahs satisfaction.

Analysis of such reaction | Such sidestepping shows however some other aspect because the American president who denounced this construction specified that he’s been informed long time ago about this second enrichment center ! This raises the issue of his silence ! Why he didn’t mention this secret plant while he talks so often about Iranian nuclear threat ? The answer is very simple : this fictive plant the mullahs invented to increase the crisis contradicts the 2007 report of American secret services -NIE 2007. This report minimized the Iranian nuclear danger and then it made heavy sanctions unnecessary. Thus Washington avoided sanctions that would have been susceptible to overthrow the mullahs because it wishes to have them as regional allies to penetrate Central Asia.

Tehran really put Washington in a difficult situation with this enrichment center which comes out of nowhere. This media scud the mullahs operated is a true calamity for Washington because it also questioned AEIA reliability at the time when this UNO agency has just broken with anti-American management.

This is what explains the AEIA 3 day silence : they were looking for some about-turn to save the Agency’s latest report about the activities deliberate freezing and as well the American report about the low progress of the Iranian nuclear program. Such turn-about is worthy of the nuclear crisis between Washington and Tehran : Tehran is requested to open its plant to AEIA inspection. Actually the mullahs are requested to let Washington decide if it’s relevant to make valid this rumor so to permit the adoption of new sanctions or if it’s suitable to make it invalid by minimizing the danger of this site and thus spare this useful regime to get new fatal sanctions.

By way of warning to the mullahs, our American friends took their puppets out of their boxes : the people’s Mujahidin. They made a release within the time limit that was granted by the AEIA with revelations about this plant’s characteristics but also about a third enrichment plant thanks to the sources the Resistance provided !

Those sources are probably quite heavenly because this organization doesn’t dispose of any satellite and as it is lacking in respect for our understanding, it published satellite photos of empty buildings whose coordinates were passed on to the mullahs by the AEIA.

The Iranian nuclear crisis is stagnating on the spot. The same outlines are always repeated because there’s basically no will to be done with the mullahs and Washington doesn’t want to acknowledge that there’s no possible agreement with this regime. Our sole satisfaction is that such regime is incorrigible : it is the architect of its own fall.

The french version of this article :
- Iran : Plus d’enrichissement pour désespérer les Six !
- (26 Septembre 2009)

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| Mots Clefs | Décideurs : OBAMA |
| Mots Clefs | Enjeux : Garanties Régionales de Sécurité : le DEAL US |

| Mots Clefs | Décideurs : P5+1 (les Six) |
| Mots Clefs | Institutions : Provocations |
| Mots Clefs | Institutions : Diplomatie (selon les mollahs) |

| Mots Clefs | Nucléaire : Equipements & Centrales (Bouchehr) |
| Mots Clefs | Nucléaire : Politique Nucléaire des mollahs |