The great coalition between Khatami, Karrubi -the Supreme Guide’s advisor and Khatami’s rival- and Mussavi is presented by the medias that are linked with the regime as an event and even a victory without precedent. But this is far from being a victory for the regime. It would rather be the contrary.

This coalition is the result of the Green Movement’s failure because it betrayed the aspirations of Iranian for change and thus for this reason, it cannot mobilize crowds.

If the regime would benefit from a great popular base as it was the case on its beginnings, it could have offered the spectacle of several opposition parties which would have simultaneously filled Tehran’s mosques to challenge the elected president within the framework of Islamic constitution. It’s precisely because it doesn’t have any more the ability to mobilize crowds that it decided to create a single structure that would not appear as a party but as a social network.

Beside such coalition which benefits from over media coverage, there’s some lack of staff, of a popular presence, a necessary thing to give any credence to this opposition that is loyal to Islamic revolution.

The abusive publicity given to this coalition through artificial persecution toward its members is also a way to make forget the absence of any program, an absence which is disguised as a “participative democracy”. If the regime and the medias give such subject a miss, it’s because nobody into this regime wish for any alternative program to get over nuclear crisis. The sole purpose is to simulate some opposition, that’s it.

To maintain itself with no popular support and with no program embryo, then the good quality of its leaders who are present as sandwich-men will be stressed. Except from the three tenors who are supposed to represent dialogue and moderation, there are also about forty people from the current trial’s dock : they are supposed to represent protesters who don’t reject the regime but who solely reject “Ahmadinejad’s coup”.

Once implemented and acknowledge as the representative of Iranian people, this opposition will do only one thing : it will contest the legitimacy of the elected president, i.e. the pretext that was initiated by the Green Movement to block negotiations and initiate an additional crisis that would be even greater and that would need some immediate arrangement to avoid the worse -a war.

For Tehran, the ideal arrangement would be the right to dispose of armed militias in Lebanon and Palestine as well as the right for enrichment to seduce the Arab street by raising the threat of Israel’s destruction. Of course such arrangement is impossible. That’s why the regime must go and raise bigger crisis to reach this objective. It does so because it always followed such outline and it considers the Hezbollah and its nuisance power and its life insurance.

Hezbollah’s vital necessity is a point of view that is shared by the regime’s true leaders such as Rafsanjani, Mussavi and Karrubi who are members of the Expedience Discernment Council but also by those who are not members, such as Khatami, who however participate in such play by assuming the role of moderators, reformers or dissidents to ease the situation when the threat of new sanctions appears.

This is a regime that is close-knit, petrified and incapable to compromise so to rescue itself. That’s why such coalition of the same people that are on power since 30 years appears as extremely positive for millions of Iranians who wish for a regime change. Such rigidity will be rewarded by sanctions on gasoline import that will weaken militia but also cause desertions into this body that is composed of suburbs poor children.

Finally, the Path of Green Hope bears well its name.