Since his election, Barack Obama offered negotiations free of previous conditions -of enrichment suspension- to the mullahs in order to put an end to the crisis and to the American sanctions that harshly penalize Iran and the mullahs’ regime. The latter refused because this supposed they would do the first step toward the United States, i.e. they would arrive to the negotiation table as favor cadgers.

The mullahs estimate that it’s their right to ask for the contrary, i.e. forcing the Americans towards them notably through an abolishment of the sanctions. Each one wants to make the other capitulate. Through this arm wrestling there is the necessity for the United States to connect their pipelines to Central Asia, a geopolitical connection which is solely possible via Iran and the mullahs expect to bargain it to obtain the recognition of their “regional role”, i.e. an interference right inside the Israeli-Palestinian conflict via its armed militias, the Hezbollah and the Hamas. Such interference that would threaten the security of Israel is the life insurance of the mullahs.

In order to acquire benefit of reason, Tehran disposes of a strategy and a tactic. This strategy is to deprive the United States from such vital connection for their future to force them to make the first step : to do so, it has to refuse to make compromises. Concretely it’s like escaping from any pacified dialogue with Washington but also deepening the crisis so that for fear of a new war or an oil crisis everybody pushes the Americans to become more attentive to the Iranian requests -regarding the Hezbollah.

To put an end to such tactic -escape + crisis deepening, Washington imagined to imply Tehran into a cooperation for Afghanistan and offered it to participate in a conference about such theme at the Hague. Tehran refused. To attract it into its trap, Washington asked its regional allies to flatter it by the hail of the accuracy of its regional action. Tehran sent an emissary to the conference to talk as a regional actor which is respected by its neighbors and to criticize the American presence in Afghanistan… Washington didn’t react and continued its policy : sanction + offers of negotiations without conditions to force as usual Tehran to burry a knee.

The months of efforts regarding such conference clearly showed that the crisis with Iran was being transformed into a compact confrontation between Teheran and Washington, a confrontation from which were excluded the other countries that are involved in the dialogue with Teheran, mainly to promote a multilateral agreement that would assure their interests in this country.

The day before new nuclear and tensing announces that were planned by Tehran with a degree of anti-American speech, the Six at last reacted offering in their turn a dialogue with no previous conditions to Tehran. Actually Russia, China, Germany, France and UK adjusted to the American position in order to not get distanced. Tehran didn’t pay any attention to such invitation. It maintained its tactic of crisis increase. Again Washington didn’t react and continued to make its offer of negotiation with no previous conditions -without enrichment suspension.

Panicked by such American will to get at all costs an agreement with Tehran and in order to counter it, France intervened to insist on the necessity of a central role for the Security Council, the AEIA, a pro-British organ that is hostile to the United States, and also the necessity of a dialogue that would be pinned on the irremovable condition of the suspension of the enrichment by Tehran.

Washington even didn’t need to react. The Islamic Republic of Iran let it know that it “wouldn’t participate in any discussion with a condition of suspension.”

The cancelling of the suspension is perceived by Tehran as a political victory on the United States and not as a step forward. It is also considered as an implicit recognition of its right to enrichment which is the bottom of the crisis and makes it get American sanctions. Tehran also needs such derogation to maintain its tensing program, an ideal and cheap tool to deepen the crisis.

This is why in the wake of this first cry from the heart against the return of the irremovable condition of an enrichment suspension, Tehran informed that it would accept a dialogue free from previous conditions with the Six, a meeting it intends to transform into the consecration of its right for enrichment.

As an answer, Washington greeted such decision and mentioned it would participate to the dialogue as it remained fixed on its offer of a direct and unconditional dialogue, an offer that scares the mullahs because it assimilates their participation in a dialogue to a first step toward Washington. Irritated, Tehran decided to initiate an anti-American action to make the meeting collapse. It started to institute legal proceedings against Roxana Saberi, the American journalist of Iranian origin who is held in Iran in order to provoke a crisis with Washington. and delay any dialogue -always the same tactic of escape and crisis deepening.

Washington negotiated the bend by reminding of its attachment to a dialogue free of any previous condition via an article in the New York Times in which it’s matter of a late adherence of the United States to a dialogue free of previous conditions with Tehran while such idea appeared first in the United States ! Answer of the mullahs to such ruse : “Iran will continue its nuclear program and its ballistic program”

As it renounced to a suspension, Washington continues hoping for attracting the mullahs to the negotiation table in order to greet their will to compromise. Tehran counter-attacked on the ballistic topic which is greatly topical at the moment with the ABM anti-missile buckler system !

The boaster in chief of the mullahs’ regime, Mahmud Ahmadinejad, went further regarding the ballistic provocation. He announced that 100% of the Iranian missiles that are being studied would have a range of 700 or even 1,500 km ! This concerns Israel and the American bases in Iraq, Bahrain or Turkey. Being sure that such words would hit the bull’s eye, Tehran however reminded its will to participate in discussions with the Six which would acknowledge its right to enrichment, a right Tehran intends to use by carrying on its program as it pleases.

As we announced it yesterday, Tehran uses such project of dialogue to start a new arm-wrestling. This new mano a mano will follow the same schema which consists in provoking the United States by all means : to deepen the crisis so that for fear of a new war or an oil crisis, everybody pushes the Americans to become more attentive to the Iranian requests -regarding the Hezbollah.

What will answer Washington ? If it doesn’t react, Tehran will go up a gear. If it also gives in.

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The french version of this article :
 Iran : Un droit à l’enrichissement et à la provocation !
 (15 AVRIL 2009)