On Monday, in a yearly speech on the occasion of Muhammad’s divine revelation, Khamenei, the Supreme Guide, expressed a severe warning to the elites by exhorting them to prudence regarding the positions they take about the present crisis, by specifying : “whoever who would lead the society toward insecurity and disorder would be a detested person in the eyes of Iranian population, no matter who he would be.”

Then Western medias, under the influence of some experts that are linked with Iran, mentioned the opened struggle between Khamenei, the guardian of some orthodoxy, and his untold target, Rafsanjani, the representative of modernity. Such analysis results from some ignorance of Khamenei, Rafsanjani, their relation and also the balance of power between both of them.

Khamenei, Rafsanjani and their relation | On the beginning of the revolution, when Khomeini launched a fatwa against Rushdie, Khamenei was the one who asked for the lift of this death sentence. In the system that was imagined by the mullahs, he used to play a moderate part but he took the nasty role when the regime wanted to promote other rulers as good part. At the same time when Khamenei played it moderate, Rafsanjani called the Hezbollah for killing foreigners residing in Lebanon. He was also behind Paris blasts. Then he was not quoted as the face of modernity. This changed in 1989 when Khomeini, half brother of Rafsanjani, died. The latter falsified Khomeini’s testament by making believe that the regime’s founder chose to succeed him Khamenei, an inferior mullah such as Rafsanjani. Into this operation, Khamenei was named Great Ayatollah but he was never accepted by the five others [1] who gained as for them this title thanks to their Islamic works.

This is how Rafsanjani could move away from power the great ayatollahs who were normally with great functions ahead them so to extend his own political powers inside an organization that was created at the same time to replace the Council of Revolution : the Expediency Discernment Council of the Regime of great ayatollahs’ guardianship, an organization which counts no great ayatollahs but bazaris, Pasdaran or Bassidj commanders and mullahs who are as politician and wheeler-dealer as Rafsanjani.

Balance of powers | Nowadays, even if he would want it, Khamenei cannot neither struggle against Rafsanjani neither harm him : he’s not as worthy as him, Khamenei is too weak and Rafsanjani too powerful.

According to the law, as President of the Council of the Guardians, Rafsanjani can revoke anytime Khamenei ! On the contrary, if the Supreme Guide Khamenei would decide to complete an action against Rafsanjani, he would need according to the law to consult the Expediency Discernment Council whose Rafsanjani is life president. We imagine he won’t accept his own destitution or any proceedings that are against him.

The struggle between Khamenei and Rafsanjani | Such theoretical struggle is unequal and lost in advance for Khamenei. This impossible struggle however continues to obsess Western medias : we owe such obsession to the regime’s will and its lobbyists’ efforts who are disguised in experts of Iran. By making repeating such fake truth, the regime gives a plausible explanation to a feigned instability that allows it to question its own commitments by mentioning a change of its political color while everything is decided at the Expediency Discernment Council before being ratified by Khamenei, the fake great ayatollah at the service of the Council.

The true struggle behind this smokescreen | The West gave too much importance to this non existing struggle and we, from Iran-Resist, gave too much importance to the omnipotence of the Expediency Discernment Council and the absence of internal division between so-called conservatives and reformers to such extent that we didn’t notice a fact that endangers nowadays the regime from inside.

This is a fact that after 20 years of omnipotent and absolute power, the Expediency Discernment Council of the Regime of Ayatollahs Guardianship became the Expediency Discernment Council of Rafsanjani and his 29 partners ; a State in the State which is in entire contradiction with the system that was conceived by Khomeini so to give the power to great ayatollahs.

Nowadays great ayatollahs are reduced to the role of advisers in Islamity with no other response power than their fatwa but quite unable to use it for fear of being given a rough ride and also because the Expediency Discernment Council of the Regime is the regime’s keystone : being harmful to it could overthrow the whole regime, which would ring the death knell of Islam in the country.

This is where lays the intern struggle : between the Expediency Discernment Council lead by Rafsanjani and the great ayatollahs who are worried about the latest decisions of the Council, such as the one simulating a new Islamic revolution to renew the popular attachment to denial of dialogue and compromise with the West -in order to refuse Obama’s given hand. According to great ayatollahs, in the present case, the end doesn’t justify the means because we cannot make a revolution against a power inspired by God without questioning Islam.

Their fear was well-founded because lately to encourage the participation of Iranians to this new revolution, Rafsanjani mentioned the “superiority of popular legitimacy” within the framework of his Friday sermon in front of his peers who were sitting in the first row. Since the end of this sacrilege speech, great ayatollahs summoned Rafsanjani to Mashhad, fief of Vaez-Tabassi -another powerful member of the Council- to warn him.

As answer, Rafsanjani drove his lieutenant Khatami to mention a referendum to restore the situation ! This is another decision that can sweep the regime away. By way of riposte, great ayatollahs talked through the voice of the Supreme Guide who remains their official spokesman despite his links with the enemy : “whoever who would lead the society toward insecurity and disorder would be a detested person in the eyes of Iranian population, no matter who he would be.”

The reference to the nation shows their lack of retaliation power against the Expediency Discernment Council. They grumble as they are unable to prevent Rafsanjani from doing as he pleases ! The political power of the regime, i.e. the Expediency Discernment Council, cannot show anymore any challenge to established authority and the financial interests that are at stake are so important that it won’t change its behavior. This implies the full scale explosion of internal struggles that always existed in this Council.

The regime which always simulated internal struggle to have peace may perish thanks to the omnipotent system it created so to ensure power permanence.

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The french version of this article :
 Iran : Erreur sur la nature de la lutte interne
 (22 JUILLET 2009)