This report is nearly worded identically as a report six years ago by American intelligence that evoked that Tehran would in a very near future have the capacity of producing one or two nuclear warheads per year . The IAEA reformulates the same conclusions by connecting this possibility to the future activity of the separators in the Fordo plant after 2011.

In 2003 the prediction was bombs for 2005, thus allowing harsh sanctions against Tehran if the Mullahs refused dialogue. Tehran was not intimidated then, and in a decision by the Security Council, the head of the IAEA, Tehran’s record with past separators was erased in order to give them a fresh start in a new comedy of pressures until 2012.

By this conduct, the P5+1 (UN Security Council permanent members and Germany) have demonstrated their opposition to reinforced sanctions against Tehran. The main reason being that the Mullahs’ regime has already been extremely weakened by the current sanctions and could find itself in a critical situation with newer sanctions.

The Atomic Agency’s new approach is a status quo : by evoking a possible threat in 1, 2 or x years after 2011, the Security Council remains alert, which signifies that the American sanctions will remain in place. But the threat being pushed back a few years there is no need for any further sanctions for the moment, therefore, the door is left open for dialogue with Tehran.

At a first glimpse, this will satisfy Tehran’s strategic commercial partners opposed to new sanctions, but it also satisfies Washington, the master conductor of pressure on Tehran. There is however a subtlety : Washington has been evoking openly for months it’s hope to reach an entente with the Mullahs, and the new pro-American direction of the IAEA just published a report conform in all manner to Washington’s diplomatic needs. By the means of this report, the U.S. can continue without losing face after repeated threats of harsher sanctions, its appeasement policy that consists of combining moderate sanctions with offers of a cordial Iran-American entente.

The Mullahs fear such an entente, for an entente would mean a normalisation in the relations between the two nations. A normalisation is most dreaded by the Mullahs for it could become a pretext to force a certain degree of democratisation through which Washington could push its own political pawns into the regime. Our Mullahs would quickly find themselves ejected from power and with it the right to dispose of Iranian wealth as they wish. They would lose not only their purse but also their lives !

This is the reason why Tehran strongly reacted to the IAEA report, thus announcing that they would not give up their psychological war with the U.S., the instigators of this overhaul. Their only way to survive this critical situation is to rapidly provoke Washington into a serious crisis, hoping that the fear of a new war would make the Americans abandon their plans. Tehran’s provocation came in the form of a declaration regarding the construction of the second uranium enrichment plant. It affirmed that its construction was a “political message” signifying that “neither sanctions by the Security Council nor the menace of a military strike could stop the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program !”

Tehran does not want a confrontation in 2011, 2012 or 2015, it wants it now , and it will do all to provoke a clash. And Washington will do all to prevent the clash and continue its “appeasement policy.” The situation has never been so deadlocked.

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The french version of this article :
 Iran : L’AIEA invente le rapport dilatoire !
 (18 NOVEMBRE 200)