The problem is that it is not a question of Monopoly game but of geopolitics. North Korea is not Iran just like Iraq is not Iran; all these countries differ by the interests they represent from a geopolitical point of view. Moreover North Korea does not control terrorist movements which can influence the destiny of the Mediterranean, the Middle East or the Persian Gulf area. This small ruined country (North Korea) does not have oil and by its political situation, it is a delivery plate for the Iraqi djihadists or the Afghan Talibans.

George W Bush and his staff are not idiots and they know very well that the solution found with the North Korea does not concern the mullahs’ regime, but their objective is to delay the application of true effective sanctions against this regime. Their objective is to find an agreement with this regime and anything to undertake (effective sanctions, support for a true opposition, or even troops unload - but not a bombardment), nothing which can put in danger this useful ally for their project of the Middle East enmeshed in interminable ethnic or religious quarrels.

The mullahs’ regime is useful for the United States; it is able to divide everyone without to be other thing than a factor of crisis and a referee of chaos. America appreciates this divider which will enable it to reign on a multitude of small and wake State unable to defend themselves. To succeed in forcing mullahs to obey, George and his staff had imagined a ghostly military nuclear program and a ballistic program deprived of results.

But mullahs did not give up and nowadays they have Russian and Chinese supports, for the simple reason, that Iran is, by its geopolitical situation, the centre piece of the Occidental Asia. At the time of the postponement of the last resolution, we wrote that it had been postponed to an uncertain date and all seems to prove it. The great powers, the United States at the head, seek to find a means to delay new sanctions, each one for different reasons.

And the conclusion is always the same as in this article. This blocked situation is due to the will of Americans to stick to their Strategy of Disorder. And that is why mullahs refuse the American offer of partnership. The mullahs know they are not the ideal allies for America which leans for a solution to replace them by Chalabi easier to manipulate than the mullahs-pasdaran-bazaris conglomerate, three groups that have historically the same origin.

Indeed, the preliminary draft of the American project was to divide Iraq into 3 sub regions and to use the dynamism of the Kurdish zone to separate Iranian Kurdistan, then to use the dynamism of Iraqi Shiistan to annex Khuzestan (although it is Sunnite). The Iraqi federalist project was refused by Saudi Arabia and the Americans gave it up to calm the play with the petromonarchies of the Persian Gulf. But in parallel, the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) in charge of the selection of Chalabi was put at contribution for the casting of Iranian opponents who are by largest of the chances all very believing and very federalists. If mullahs accept the American offer, they must “be democratized” and must help these believers to integrate the Iranian political life.

It is what we had called a semi-transition. According to all estimations, these beardless, chic and conservative candidates
 [1], formatted in Washington by Micheal Ledeen and Ken Timmerman (of AEI+John Bolton), could then gain elections organized by the Islamic republic. They would then apply the federalisation project of Iran “in a democratic way”. Iran would explode from inside, carrying in its blast the American-Saudi status quo on Iraq and the hopes the Saudis placed in their dear American Ally. And Saudi Arabia will see its time to be divided …

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One returns to the Arc of Crisis project which gave birth to the Islamic republic but should place at the head of Iran, not the old mullah Khomeiny, but Chalabi. This project is always there and mullahs know well that they are not the ideal allies of Uncle Sam but his allies for lack of anything better.

In order to become ideal allies, Iranian Chalabi must obtain the control of the mullah’s terrorist dissuasion, they cannot overthrow the mullahs to take their place, they must necessarily integrate the system, obtain information for the control of this network so that it does not pass under a Sino-Russian control. They must act from inside. This is why there will be neither attacks, nor inversion, but efforts so the system opens up. The Americans think that time works for them and the mullahs involved in debt by their efforts of (terrorist) war will end up under the weight of the banking sanctions that will freeze the investment in their energy sector.

It is a bad calculation as all in this American project which does not take into account the fact that the Russians and the Chinese also like to use the nuisance effect of the mullahs but without seeking to replace them by more malleable pawns. The situation is blocked because the Russians and the Chinese wish the war in Iraq or in Afghanistan and the Americans do not seem to have a plan B based on regional stability.

Just a detail | George Bush declared: “Negotiations just for the sake of negotiations oftentimes send wrong signals”. But it is exactly what Bush is doing in Iraq facing the mullahs and we have announced it with the starting of this dialogue between the two parts: this dialogue did nothing but encourage the mullahs to reinforce their support for the djihadists. America sends wrong signals to the mullahs who detect its unavowed desire and also to its Arab allies unable to be defended without it or to contradict it.

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The french version :
 Analyse : Bush sait que l’Iran n’est pas la Corée du Nord
 (05 octobre 2007)