Iran : Deciphering a surprising report from US secret services
© IRAN-RESIST.ORG – Dec 4, 2007 | According to a joint report by 16 different US intelligence services, Iran has stopped their nuclear arms program in the spring of 2003 following international pressures, but is continuing to enrich uranium. Yesterday it was for tomorrow. Now they announce that it’s for much later : According to this providential report, the continuation of Iran’s uranium enrichment program will permit it to develop a nuclear weapon between 2010 and 2015 !
This report brings us back to the starting point. Americans have decided to redefine the urgency of the Iranian nuclear menace. This decision affirms our theory about the arm-wrestling match that opposes the United States and the Mullahs : it is not a dispute on the imminence of an Iranian bomb, but an obstinate wish to bring back the mullacractic regime in line, in order to make it in a near future an ally and a catalyst in their remodelling of the region’s geopolitics. There is no Iranian bomb in the horizon, neither a ballistic menace.
As of September 2007, we exposed our theory, in which we explained that the Americans are not looking to overthrow the Mullahs, but only to weaken them in order to push them to accept their deal.
The U.S. will watch so that heavier sanctions are not imposed on the regime, as to avoid a popular revolt, even minor, for the internal situation is very tense. Last week, after Ahmadinejad’s visit, the deputies of the city of Ardebil had to flee in fear of being thrashed by the local population once the President and its security forces had left town.
Today, an elderly man shot a Pasdaran officer to death in broad daylight in front of an administrative building in Isfahan. A small spark can easily ignite a very difficult situation for the regime.
It is not in American interests that the revolt should come from within Iran : They need to preserve this regime in order to control its decay and become the only alternative to help it survive the slump. They prefer by far their own unilateral banking sanctions to the more vast UN sanctions. The US administration has over and over sunk all initiative to a new UN resolution for heavier sanctions by announcing their own resolution before the announced enforcing date, now repeatedly postponed.
The providential report comes at a time when the Chinese government is starting to be less reserved to the idea of a new UN resolution concerning the Mullahs. This report is extremely well weighed : it pushes afar the Iranian menace, and mostly hails the results of the international sanctions (external to UN) that has brought the Mullahs to give up on their ballistic program in 2003 !
However, it remains unclear to which sanctions this report is referring. The US administration has no qualms in reaching their goal (and it’s not the first time that they resort to such reports).
This report is also an angry response to the numerous bluffs made by the Mullahs concerning their nuclear and ballistic programs. The Americans wish to control the efficiency of the sanctions, their impact and their schedule, but also the impact the crisis has in the media. By affirming that Iran has abandoned its nuclear arms program in 2003, they seek to neutralize the Mullah’s propaganda by depriving them of their strategy to amplify the crisis by repeated worrying statements.
The report follows one week after Tehran announced that it has succeeded in the making of a long-range missile. Washington plays down the situation in order to dominate the communication of the crisis. The reporting agents in total contradiction with their statements of a few weeks ago, when the US sanctioned the so-called ballistic and nuclear Iranian industries, confirm : “Tehran’s decision to stop its nuclear arms program suggests that they are less determined to develop a nuclear weapon as we supposed since 2005… We are convinced with a moderate to high degree of confidence that Tehran has not restarted its nuclear arms program.”
The American moderation in the debate concerning the Mullahs’ nuclear nuisance capacity also shows Tehran the road to follow to the US deal. However, since this deal would weaken their power in the long run, the Mullahs refuse to accept it. Therefore, the US prefers to continue on imposing their unilateral sanctions in order to weaken the regime gently but surely.
However, this report can have other consequences in the US foreign policy : it will delay the ABM program that could have created a major crisis with Moscow over the East-European anti-missile program. In this case, this report can only be beneficial for Washington. They can legitimately postpone the implementation of the anti-missile program, since Iran is not an imminent threat, and avoid a useless crisis with Putin, extremely confident by his latest victory.
At last, the US intelligence report contradicts the numerous scenarios of a military attack on Iran : You don’t attack a country that does not represent a nuclear threat ! The report eliminates the imminent war theory : theoretical and over-simple generalisation of the Iraqi example, to the entire region in total contempt of the majority of geopolitical analysis available.
Numerous so-called writers and poor experts who have published in haste a number of books on the imminent future war (regional, world, or universal) in Iran, with Iran, or against Iran, suddenly find themselves with lapsed work. We will signal some of these comical authors in our future articles.