Iran : The subtilities of the new resolution
On January 23 2008, the five permanent members of U.N.’s Security Council and Germany came to an agreement for a new resolution concerning Iran during a meeting in Berlin. The Americans succeeded in changing Russia and China’s inflexibility on imposing sanctions on Iran. | Deciphering of a very fine tactic that leaves no chance for the Tehran-Moscow-Beijing axe. |
China’s mistake was to think that the U.S. wanted to reinforce the United Nations’ sanctions, while as we have stated it many times before, it only matters to Americans to impose new sanctions, “no matter what they contain”. The Americans are just seeking an International approval in order to continue their politics of sanctions towards Iran in response to Tehran’s refusal to halt their nuclear activities.
The Chinese lost the battle ignoring the American tactic that was to stick to the Chinese demand formulated in December 2007 of “a new resolution without any new sanctions but accompanied by a diplomatic initiative in the form of dialogue.” The Chinese could not possibly refuse to adhere to their own proposition ! They had to accept followed by the Russians who had made a similar offer in coordination with Beijing. Checkmate !
The subtlety of the American proposition goes even further : a direct dialogue of the Six with Tehran, that will most likely be rejected by the Mullahs, their strategy being, a certain ambiguity and opacity in their diplomatic and nuclear intentions (in Lebanon for example.)
The American text proposed by the U.S. in Berlin is a jewel of subtlety : It defeated the Sino-Russian resistance, proved the Americans’ ability to be flexible in the search of a diplomatic solution. But it also contains an offer that Tehran cannot accept for it would deprive them of their favourite psychological warfare that has become their nuclear program.
And since the Mullahs will refuse such direct dialogue, the Americans having shown their goodwill to the world, will be able to impose their own set of banking sanctions, for such a measure not needing an international approval (and as the cherry topping, theoretically, nothing could block them from searching a secret entente with the Mullahs.)
It is a cruel defeat for Moscow and Beijing, for they have no choice but to follow the U.S., not even the possibility of making the procedure last by questioning the calendar : the longer the crisis will last, the more it will serve the American strategy. The Russians, being excellent chess players will most likely find a few good moves, but it announces a very lengthy crisis. : America’s exact wish.
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