Last week, before Obama-Netanyahu’s meeting, Ha’aretz mentioned some formal US prohibition of any Israeli attack against Iran. We didn’t comment such news because it didn’t seem to us like a credible one. We had good intuition : at the conclusion of this meeting, Obama let Netanyahu say he would take action if American dialogue with Iran would fail. But no date has been specified then !

Netanyahu’s statement is thus in broad outline of American evocation of military option. Washington uses the Israeli strike threat to scare the mullahs. If it wasn’t the case, Israel would not have established a link between its intervention for its security and the failure of a dialogue offered by another State.

The problem is that we are on the wrong track : the United States are solely looking for sanctioning the mullahs’ regime so to urge it to become their Muslim ally in Central Asia. They need Iran as a transit corridor and the Pasdaran as allies to trouble China’s and Russia’s Muslim regions. The aim is not to smash the mullahs’ regime but to subdue it. This is why Washington refuses to adopt real sanctions as it has solely the means to do so because it could make the mullahs stumble as if it was coming from 100 Israeli strikes.

The threat of any Israeli strike, which was used for long under Bush, persists because American didn’t find any better way in terms of threat as the sanctions that would be really efficient are not in the agenda.

There’s an additional reason that dismissed such military strike : the United States are conscious of the fact that after such attack, the mullahs would receive UNO support from several States -China, Russia, Europe- which would demand some multilateral agreement with their regime. This would reinforce the mullahs but also postpone for a while the possibility of any Iranian-American agreement.

If Washington would come to deduce the absence of any possibility of agreement with the mullahs, it would make the decision to help seriously its opponents to whom it refused its support for the time being. In the meantime, those strikes that would be unanimously condemned by every exile would remain solely a project. That’s the reason why the return of such sterile rumor is the sign of some stalemate into American diplomacy.

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The french version of this article :
 Iran : La frappe israélienne n’aura jamais lieu
 (19 MAI 2009)