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IRAN-USA : THE CONNECTING VESSELS !
Three days ago, Tehran announced that within 30 days it would start to “build two enrichment plants with centrifuges that would be 5 times more powerful”. The following day, Hillary Clinton reminded that she attached value by dialogue and maybe by a resolution “within 30 to 60 days”. There’s obviously a link between those both statements. However the connection is more complex than what seems to be.
Since a year, Obama has sanctioned the mullahs relentlessly and has deprived them of any oil contract. Meanwhile he has offered them to end such hardship which goes against the Iranian economy by normalizing the relations between both countries in order to obtain “an entente which would respect both countries”. Lately Washington dismissed for good the possibility of any American or Israeli military strike and it specified it would go on with its policy of double approach as long as it would be possible, i.e. sanction coupled with entente offers. We understand straightaway that the signature of such entente is very important for Washington and it’s also very important for the mullahs to refuse it.
Actually it’s even vital for both ones. As it aims to weaken China, Washington needs an ally that would be able to make the Muslims of this region revolt against China and such strategic ally has to be a Muslim State which lays claim to Islamist activism : the only one available specimen is the mullahs’ regime. De facto, Washington cannot overthrow it : it has to consider changing it into a docile ally by resorting to intimidation. So to be successful, Washington has targeted the mullahs’ weak points : their economy and their unpopularity. It started to sanction the mullahs in order to increase social discontent. In parallel, it has told relentlessly that Pasdaran barracks would be bombed and sanctions would be implemented in order to induce riots. De facto, the key of victory appeared to be a war of attrition.
From their part, the mullahs cannot accept to become Washington’s allies because this would presuppose some reconciliation. This would imply that they would accept the come back to Iran of exiled persons who stem from the regime and remain close to Washington. Moreover they would be granted the right to involve in political space. Tehran was right to see this constituted a clever Trojan horse strategy whose success would depend on the attrition war Washington makes against its weak points. Tehran needed to neutralize such attrition war as soon as possible because time wasn’t in its favour. Thus it identified Washington’s European allies -which depend on the Persian Gulf’s oil supply- as its weak point. From then on, it started to chain nuclear and military provocations in order to commit Washington into an escalation that would be susceptible to lead to a war. Consequently, for fear of a threat on their oil supply, Europeans would panic and ask Washington to put an end to its pressures and to its Trojan horse policy as well.
Thus both ways of time management were used simultaneously : Washington’s attrition war and the mullahs’ lightning war. Three days ago, Tehran which appeared weaker and weaker because of sanctions speeded up its deliberate strategy of crisis deepening in order to impose its own pace and take control of every operation… In order to pull the rug from under its feet, Washington waited that a day goes by and it announced a possible resolution within maybe 30 or 60 days… Europeans didn’t react. If we consider the habitual practice of such attrition war, actually Washington just taught the mullahs a lesson in a much disdainful way. Thus we should prepare for some noisy diatribe !
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| Mots Clefs | Décideurs : Hillary Clinton |
| Mots Clefs | Institutions : Diplomatie (selon les mollahs) |