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Iran : A spectacular reversal thanks to the US !

In order to avoid any gesture of appeasement without laying itself opened to sanctions because of some lack of cooperation, Tehran had the idea to offer an off-board dialogue in order to urge Americans to slam the negotiation door behind. Right after it refused without getting angry, Washington accepted this dialogue in order to commit Tehran into an appeasement process. Tehran is panicking, mullahs doesn’t want anymore to use their own solution !

On Tuesday 8 September, the main Iranian negotiator announced the press that Tehran was ready to resume the talks with Westerners.

On Wednesday 9 September, Mottaki, the Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, repeated that Iran was ready to resume dialogue before he handed over to the Six’s representatives who were gathered together in his office copies of the Iranian proposals’ package. Actually it’s a set of discussion topics that were already suggested in 2008 and were then rejected by the Six as they were due to be off-board topics. Tehran hoped for a similar reaction from the Six so to shift the blame for a breakdown on them.

On Thursday 10 September, Tehran attempted to side the opinion with itself by insisting on its permanent will to dialogue, Ahmadinejad’s held hand, an attitude that was not much rewarded by its adversaries. At first it was Soltanieh, IAEA’s Iranian representative, who mentioned it in Vienna by quoting Ahmadinejad and then Hashemi-Samerah, vice-president and Ahmadinejad’s best friend, mentioned it again in an interview that was made with the Washington Post.

On Friday 11 September, American didn’t get angry contrary to Tehran’s wish because such proposal wasn’t unheard.

It’s in 2008 that Tehran developed this stratagem of offbeat dialogue in order to cause American breakdown. It didn’t obtain the expected effect because Bush wanted to conclude his mandate with an agreement with Iran which is necessary to get to Central Asia. With the arrival of Obama who multiplied pretexts to draw Iran to the negotiating table, the mullahs put this risky proposal aside. In accordance with our analysis, when Obama and his advisors saw this proposal re-emerge with the obvious risks it involved, they took it that diplomatic solutions and tricks of the Iranian side were exhausted. Such exhaustion permitted them to sharpen their answer.

On Friday 11 September, Americans refused the hand that was held by Ahmadinejad. Since he concluded his plan was successful, Mottaki, the Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, thus spoke again to insist on his country’s good will for talks.

Stab in the back | We may believe that Washington planned this kind of cock-a-doodle-do. Like a good poker player, it waited to trap Tehran. Thus it accepted Tehran’s offer by stating it was “ready to test Iranian will and discuss !”

On Saturday 12 September, Washington took advantage of the situation. Trapped by its excess of pride, the regime sinks and insists on its “right for nuclear power” but it cannot call into question the dialogue will it displayed.

What Tehran will do ? | This defeat is much more serious than we think because from now on Tehran is faced with its non-choice. If it would refuse to dialogue -to achieve an agreement, it would lay itself opened to new sanctions which would mean in its case some collapse because it is already much weakened economically. If it would accept any dialogue -a compromise- to escape from this additional weakening that would be susceptible to help opponents, it would be then disowned by the Arab street to which it promised to refuse any dialogue with Americans, allies of the Zionists. It would have trouble keeping control on militias that have a true nuisance power. Without this terrorist contribution, the regime would be easy to overthrow. If we consider both solutions, the second one is more radical and that’ why most probably Tehran will choose sanctions with the hope they will be softened thanks to the help of its basic allies who are also its trade partners, Russia, China and Europe.

We’ve been given a foretaste of this crucial choice by Ahmadinejad’s rush ahead and its anti-imperialistic speech that was close to the Arab street’s aspirations.

As the trick of offbeat dialogue failed, we’ll see also the regime intensifying its comedy of script written protest of Ahmadinejad’s legitimacy in order to feign the internal crisis that would prevent it from dialoguing.

Will we head to some stalemate ? No, this situation coupled with new sanctions could be a blessing for Iranian opposition which protested against the whole regime from the 15 to the 25 June through a national upraise. This situation with new sanctions throws the door wide open to new anti-regime action possibilities whenever sanctions create basic product shortage. Moreover the worsening of economic situation at popular level further to dialogue refusal will shake up fake opponents : they will need to choose between people who suffer from this dialogue refusal and the regime to which they belong. The regime is heading to a risk of internal dislocation.

This situation will also show in true colors the void of the speech of the regime’s fake dissidents if instead of defending people, they defend the right for nuclear power.

The upcoming weeks may be exciting because the regime can’t make a step backward and need always to go forward. Within this framework it will ask its foreign lobbyists to stand up for its right for nuclear power. Those lobbyists will also need to make choices. Washington’s stab in the back -although it was conceived to nab the mullahs into some agreement- will be a blessing for every adversary of the regime.

The french version of this article :
- Iran : Un retournement spectaculaire grâce aux Etats-Unis !
- (14 Septembre 2009)

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| Mots Clefs | Décideurs : OBAMA |
| Mots Clefs | Enjeux : Rétablir les rel. avec les USA & Négociations directes |
| Mots Clefs | Zone géopolitique / Sphère d’influence : USA |

| Mots Clefs | Institutions : Diplomatie (selon les mollahs) |

| Mots Clefs | Nucléaire : Politique Nucléaire des mollahs |
| Mots Clefs | Nucléaire : Négociations sans fins (Manoeuvres dilatoires) |