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IRAN : No B plan for Ahmadinejad

© IRAN-RESIST.ORG – August 24 2009 | If we consider the Iranian press, we may take it that Ahmadinejad’s situation is unstable. He is criticized by his adversaries who accuse him of fraud and by elected representatives from his own side who reject any fraud but reproach him some incompetence.

The Iranian press shows many critics aiming at Ahmadinejad’s choices. The clergy “cannot accept female ministers into Ahmadinejad’s government” despite the fact it never criticized such kind of nomination. As for the Parliament, it mentioned it rejected several ministers who were chosen by Ahmadinejad.

Besides the Parliament suspended a close adviser of Ahmadinejad because he paid some two years unjustified salary to his friend. That beats everything ! This Parliament itself that is so finicky about expenses paid for 20 years an adviser salary to Mussavi who never dared to go to the luxurious office that was dedicated to this function into Parliament’s enclosure. Such detail could have been mentioned by the media that is close to Ahmadinejad but everybody forgot it in Tehran. It seems that Ahmedinejad hunting season is opened. Even the Guide himself is not heard because he could forbid by a single gesture the Parliament to carry out any initiative in order to put an end to this disturbing campaign. Such silence isn’t a fortuitous one. We assist in an act that is directed by the regime itself in order to discredit Ahmadinejad who is the main interlocutor of the Six regarding nuclear issue. The objective is to make the Six doubt of the legitimacy of their interlocutor. With the help of this feigned instability, the regime wants to block negotiations with the Six so to not give up its pricy right for enrichment.

Right for enrichment | Soon the regime will give a positive answer to the compromise offer that was made by the Six. Such answer supposes that it agrees to stop enrichment, a nuclear activity which is a step toward military nuclear power. The right for enrichment implies the ownership of some Islamic bomb. Such weapon carries a great symbolic value into the region : this is a matter of becoming the equal of Israel which is the supreme enemy of any Muslim who supports Palestine. Every Arabic or Muslim adversary of Israel supports such mullahs’ claim. By asserting that it’s the eulogist of such enrichment right, Tehran is getting sure to obtain the Arab street’s support and secures the regional role it acquired thanks to another slogan : Israel’s destruction. Both slogans complement each other.

However this is important to specify that the right for enrichment and the relating scientific announcements remain slogans because in the meantime the regime doesn’t manage to start without Russian support its sole civil nuclear plant that is 99% finished ! Actually Tehran doesn’t really mind technical aspect. It simply needs some dream to get the Arab street’s support. Tehran bluffed excessively ; it cannot renounce to its right for enrichment and agree with Israel’s friends because it would loose face as well as Arab street support. This would cause its militias’ split and it would loose its response abilities, its life insurance.

As it is unable to make concessions, it always played this game of crisis increase in order to create the conditions of some confrontation by hoping its adversaries would capitulate to avoid the worse and would grant it the right for enrichment, the right for slogans.

Under Republicans, Tehran was at ease to increase crisis. Obama’s arrival disturbed the mullahs because he offered an immediate and free of previous condition dialogue, an appeasement that is contrary to their ambition of being the main regional factor of nuisance.

Tehran’s first answer was to fire missiles in order to cause a rupture. But Obama implemented a side stepping policy. Then Tehran multiplied provocations which include the hostage-taking of the Iranian-American journalist Roxana Saberi and her trial because of espionage. Nothing caused any disrupt into the policy of dialogue offering.

Fake | As it is unable to provoke Washington, it decided to trap it. Right after Ahmadinejad’s election, a green colour movement that claims to emanate from the Islamic revolutionary tradition contested electoral results and asked for new elections. Tehran took up the American scenario of Ukraine’s orange revolution. The regime hoped for urging Obama to take a stand for this popular movement. This would have had two effects : Obama would have discredited the elected president ; he would not have been able to represent his country in nuclear negotiations. Or else he would have granted some international recognition to his adversary Mussavi who also asked for enrichment right. Actually Obama would have blocked unintentionally negotiations or brought to power a pro-nuclear Islamist and also recognize right for enrichment to Iranians. Tehran would have won the game with a KO by not doing any battle.

Americans weren’t caught out by this green movement and Iranians took advantage of the right to demonstrate to rise up. After it curbed the uprising, the regime decided to launch again the green movement but after several failures, it opted for a less dangerous B plan : Ahmadinejad called into question by deputies from his side ; this scenario was made possible by the presidential choices which were deliberately opened to criticism and caused great polemics about their pertinence as well as destitution requests. This was a pre-starter and it was meant to prepare the Western opinion to the news that mentioned the nomination would be boycotted by the main leaders of the country. Tehran hoped for urging Westerners to disown officially this non-representative president.

But as we could suspect it, such rejection didn’t happen. Westerners even acknowledged this little devil to put an end to Tehran’s irritating manoeuvres. Nowadays there’s no need anymore to discredit Ahmadinejad but the regime goes on announcing problems with the Parliament because it didn’t find better solution. It’s getting even worse.

From now on, in order to worsen the crisis, it needs actions with greater impact : Ahmadinejad’s destitution or a failed assassination attempt against him in order to accuse the West or Israel and break off dialogue unilaterally, to increase the crisis, to head to confrontation, etc… But let’s the mullahs select their shady initiatives. In this field, they don’t lack of any imagination.

The french version of this article :
- Iran : Pas de plan B pour Ahmadinejad
- (24 AOÛT 2009)

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