For a week, Washington tried everything to pull the mullahs to a negotiation table and to start the dialogue process. This week made with efforts and mediations failed on the Thursday 11 March when Ahmadinejad and then the Supreme Guide reminded the position of Iran i.e. its widening of dialogue but in exchange of some compensations –lifting of the sanctions and giving up of the charges linked to nuclear power and terrorism.

Such as each time, right after that a new American widening attempt is rejected by Iran, Washington announces new series of sanctions : this time a one year extension of the sanctions. The previous time, an attempt to dialogue directly with Rafsanjani in Bagdad, set off a heavy sanction. This time, there are no new sanctions but a new orientation : Washington says no to the Iranian condition of sanctions lifting before any dialogue acceptance.

This is a fundamental point. Actually, as it searches to open the dialogue process, Washington is trying to close such process because it won’t be unlimited. Teheran knows that once the dialogue will start, it will be quickly in position of coming to compromises on pain of sanctions radicalization. Actually the dialogue announces a fatal choice : more sanctions or a release via a regional agreement with the United States, an agreement that Teheran wants to convert it into huge cash. The announcement of Obama shows that the new American administration doesn’t mean to haggle over the clauses of such vital agreement for its future.

This is a very bad news for the Iranian economy because it’s not going well. The adoption of new steps reducing gasoline rationing - 120 l. to 80 l. per car, the multiplication of its price by 6 and the massive cancellation of the allowances in kind -ration coupon- to be replaced with cash assistance -paid with valueless money- prove it. The mullahs remained taken aback by Obama’s decision as it is showed by the first reaction expressed by Ahmadinejad during a speech at the inauguration of some energy equipment. Ahmadinejad mentioned “childish mistakes” that keeps on preventing Iran from “making scientific progress in the nuclear or space field” (i.e. ballistic field). It’s a statement that gets into forbidden theme but avoids being provocative, warlike and focused on the destruction of Israel. Visibly, Teheran needs to temper. So we can qualify such decision as efficient.

This prolongation is actually efficient on two counts because it could serve the American objectives in the frame of the present American diplomacy that is based on the necessity of an agreement with the mullahs. However it may become more efficient if the United States give up this doctrine in desperation. Thus we can predict that it’s a matter of lasting decision. That explains the choice of Obama to mention the origin of the sanctions -“established by Clinton and maintained by Bush”- in order to anchor his decision into a historical continuity.

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The french version of this article :
  Iran-sanctions : Obama secoue le cocotier des mollahs
 (14 MARS 2009)