August 31 2008 | Last Thursday, American made a step toward an agreement with the mullahs withdrawing their protection of the people’s Mujahidin based in Iraq. Teheran already made a step in the same direction via Moqtada Sadr who called in his supporters to lay down weapons, threatening the recalcitrant of expulsion from Mahdi army.

Such a call is a window on Teheran’s abilities. Thus the mullahs’ regime shows its abilities to end all at once the martyrdom of American soldiers, allowing Bush administration to close its mandate with Iraq’s peace and the end of a very unpopular war in the USA.

However it is necessary to specify that the mullahs didn’t wish initially to make such a gesture. When the American withdrew their protection to the Mujahidin, the mullahs interpreted such gesture as a weakness admission so they decided to let Washington stew.

The Bush administration, which yet experiment in the past this kind of situation, coupled such step forward with the arrest of one of the Iran trained war leaders. In spite of such combination, Teheran was speechifying. So it has been necessary to increase the pressure announcing the next execution of Ali Charia, another war leader trained by the mullahs, to make Teheran get the message. So it answered through this unexpected call that grants it the upper hand on Bush administration in their so-called negotiation through interposed pressure.

The strength of such a call is due to the fact that on the beginning of August, while nothing was going on anymore between Washington and Teheran into their so-called negotiation through interposed pressure, the same mullahs’ counter called in all believers (Sunni and Shiite) to unite in order to sign a blood alliance and get involved in the “military and ideological resistance against all the colonizer occupiers of Iraq and anywhere else”.

It is necessary now to wait for the events follow up but the “time aspect” is the most important. The Bush administration has to begin again in dialoging, reset the relations and a good understanding in order to get peace at least one month before the 4 November, date of American election, so to harvest the positive results of a pacified Iraq. There’s still a single month lasting for them but there’s also a single month lasting for the mullahs.

Those ones are in the same situation than in 1980 when they closed an agreement with the Republican candidate Reagan for the hostage release. Khomeini kept the American hostages who were detained in the US embassy in Teheran until the post-elections in order to harm Carter and in exchange of a nonaggression alliance against the regime.

The democrats seem to be accursed in this kind of situation. Some Iranians explain such difference with the republicans by the supposed links between this party and the oilfield lobby. This is true regarding the present administration but this can’t explain the deal closed with Reagan.

Actually in the present case this is due to the fact that the Bush administration is under pressure meanwhile this won’t happen to Obama’s team in case of victory because it would dispose of a delay of 4 to 8 years ahead. Otherwise the mullahs’ animosity toward the democrats is also due to the fact that it was the democrats, lead by Brzezinski, who were at the origin of the Islamic revolution. However they aimed to use the mullahs to federate people with the ulterior motive to get rid of them on the profit of the federalist Islamic-leftist with MKO-Banisadr tendency.

The mullahs prefer to not close any deal anymore with the democrats and particularly with Brzezinski, Obama’s diplomatic adviser, because such man wishes to lead them on the path of a geopolitical war (with China and Russia) and such war doesn’t suit them. The mullahs would prefer an agreement closed with a trading lobby and the oilfield one suits them perfectly.

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The french version of this article :
- Iran – Etats-Unis : Téhéran fait un pas important vers une entente
- (31 AOÛT 2008)

| Mots Clefs | Enjeux : Garanties Régionales de Sécurité : le DEAL US |

| Mots Clefs | Zone géopolitique / Sphère d’influence : USA |

| Mots Clefs | Histoire : Brzezinski et Carter |