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One year ago, everybody was talking about Ali Kordan, the new Interior Department Minister of Ahmadinejad. More precisely they were talking about his fake Oxford degree as two months earlier nobody heard about him. He was besides the number 2 of the Oil Ministry that is responsible of sales in the Middle-East, i.e. the sales that get round sanctions via Dubai based companies. Before that, he used to be in charge of the executive management of the State’s real property, then radio and then public television. To rise to such kind of managing position in which networks need to be handled, it’s necessary to evolve in this atmosphere and dispose of the trust of the regime’s leader.

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A network story | In the case of the mullahs’ regime, the head is the Expediency Discernment Council of the Regime -EDCR- an organism that used to be powerless until 1988 and that was granted in 1989 with full power thanks to the constitution modification that was orchestrated by Rafsanjani. Actually the operation was a coup from Rafsanjani, Khomeini’s half brother, and other cousins or lieutenants of Khomeini in order to keep the power after the latter’s death and to avoid sharing it with the clergy. Since 1989, those men share the power among themselves according to their influence in the Council. We can definitely compare this to some council lead by mafia clan heads : relatives or lieutenant are nominated to key positions in order to watch the share of Iranian income’s cake. It’s also a council in which ministries are sold to militiamen who don’t belong to any clan and who would like to build their own one. It’s as well not uncommon to assist in some economic battle among the Council’s members coupled with scores settling via the media each one controls.

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Kordan’s rise | In such mafia system, our friend Kordan switched from an important position to another one because he was very close to Ali Larijani, one of the Expediency Discernment Council members. Actually he appeared each time as the proof of the interest that was paid by his protector to sensitive fields that could make him access to confidential information about any kind of network : leaders’ real estate, information and media or even the list of Iranian actors and foreigners from oil industry. This is also what caused Kordan’s loss because Larijani, former nuclear negotiator, who was freshly named as Ahmadinejad’s successor, made the mistake of pulling strings for obtaining him the too much position, the Ministry of Interior. Shortly before 2006, right before sanctions starting, he also engaged in dialogue with Americans via one of his other lieutenants, a certain Nahavandian, who carries an American passport.

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The consequences of Kordan’s fall | Kordan’s nomination rang a bell in Rafsanjani’s mind. He thought it was a creeping coup from Larijani who was building then a more profitable network. Rafsanjani visited some weighty members of his network into the Expediency Discernment Council before he organized a media smear campaign against Kordan, the linchpin of Larijani’s network. This campaign was so violent that Larijani needed to drop his friend before he renounced officially to apply for the republic’s presidency. As a symbolic purpose, the campaign against Kordan lasted a little bit more and finally he was dismissed the day before the American elections, the deadline for a pre-electoral agreement. Thus Rafsanjani restored his power but he lost the candidate he chose to succeed Ahmadinejad, perform the regime’s relooking and block negotiations with the West thanks to his profile of former nuclear negotiator who has good knowledge of adversaries and ropes. In the absence of this blocking candidate, Rafsanjani and his advisers opted for a B plan to block negotiations : a script of democratic protest of the electoral legitimacy of the elected president, the Six’s interlocutor, in order to make invalid any dialogue. Tehran hoped for causing some trouble to deepen the crisis and lead the world on the verge of a new war so to make the United States surrender.

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The script’s success depended on Obama’s support to the protest that would have invalidated the legitimacy of the elected president, Ahmadinejad. In order to obtain it, Tehran gave this protest the form of a colour -green- revolution but Obama didn’t fall in its trap. So to snatch Obama’s yes, Tehran had to radicalize the form of the protest by resorting to more and more radical slogans that didn’t make Obama stir. But the clergy reacted and particularly the 4 great ayatollahs who dispose of authoritative edition among Shiites. They even convened Rafsanjan to ask him to change his politic way of managing. Then Rafsanjani stopped the Movement. But he has just taken up again the identical script despite the fact it failed in involving Obama. He has done it at a time when economy faces a slow big down and when we notice a problem with young militiamen who were born into poor families, the main victims of economic bankruptcies.

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Conclusions| In such conditions, the fact we envisaged some other policy with some other administrator than Rafsanjani among the members of the Expediency Discernment Council doesn’t sound unlikely. The elimination of the former leader of the networks of a rival who tried in the past to make a compromise with American implies this could be true. This rival’s low profile right after the death of his friend confirms it.

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One year ago, when Rafsanjani eliminated Kordan from the political scene, he showed what his strength inside the regime was. The process is not the same when it is question of the near execution of the same man who appeared ridiculed and deprived of his privileges. We don’t kill weak adversaries. Actually Rafsanjani just confessed that despite his network’s efficiency he used to fear everybody.

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If this succession war doesn’t call into question the regime’s survival, nevertheless it handicaps it at the level of decisions that need to be taken.

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The french version of this article :
 Iran : La crise nucléaire dégénère en crise politique
 (17 FÉVRIER 2009)