© IRAN-RESIST.ORG – March 23 2009 | Recently Russia announced the delivery of 5 S-300 defensive missile batteries to Iran would depend on “the evolution of the international situation”. It also insinuated that this should be interpreted as a delivery postponement in exchange of the abandon of the American antimissile shield project : fake clue. Russia is expecting for the right moment to deliver the S-300. | Decodings |

In 2007, a successful year for Russian weapon sales, Russia sold 5 S-300 antimissile missile batteries to Iran for 800 million dollars. Such a much performing system would allow the mullahs to repel any air or ballistic attack against their nuclear installation. But very quickly Moscow renounced to the delivery because it understood that the objective of Teheran was to neutralize such threats to stand up to the Americans for a long time and bargain its rallying to the American camp. Such rallying is the dread of Russia because its stake is the American free access to Central Asia, region that is at the origin of a great part of Russia’s gas income.

This S-300 matter is representative of the situation : there’s an Iranian-American arm wrestling but also a Russian component. Russia must necessarily make an Iranian-American agreement fail. During the year 2008, it refused to honor its contract regarding the S-300 delivery in order to not give the mullahs the means to continue the bargains that would precede the true official negotiations. Such situation is gone by due to the arrival of Obama who found the ingenious idea to offer in Iran a dialogue free of preconditions. This approach nips in the bud the principle itself of occult and endless bargains. From now on the mullahs dispose of a simple choice : accept compromises or admit their bad faith and expect some sanctions strengthening and even some support that the West denied until then to its opponents. In such conditions, Russia doesn’t have any other choice than changing its mind and delivering the missiles if it sees any specter of compromises approaching, which would be the prelude to the mullahs’ capitulation.

Russia even disposes of a decisive argument to change its mind : “the evolution of the international situation”. Indeed if Obama would talk to the mullahs, this would be a great “evolution of the international situation”. Moscow even recalled in a much wise way the subject : “the execution of the contract will mostly depend on the evolution of the international situation and on the decisions of the country’s rulers”… Obama’s dialogue with the mullahs -who became unrespectable- will be a credible motive to deliver the S-300.

Russia thinks that Iran doesn’t have any more the choice to refuse the dialogue that is offered by uncle Obama. It started to adjust to such reality : yesterday, it used to announce us of the necessity to recognize the right to enrichment for Iran but also the necessity to grant it a large regional role. If those both ways don’t manage to help the mullahs to escape from the Americans, as soon as America will be in position to submit the mullahs, Moscow will deliver the S-300. This will boost Teheran and give it the means to relaunch the crisis with the hope of an American capitulation because the delivery of the S-300 will also be the end of the military option.

Until this sacred “evolution of the international situation” comes, Moscow occupies the Medias by explaining that its decision to postpone the delivery must be interpreted as a gesture of good faith to obtain the giving up of the American antimissile shield. Promises commit only the ones who believe in them.

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The french version of this article :
- Iran : La Russie attend le bon moment pour livrer les S-300
- (23 MARS 2009)

| Mots Clefs : Alliance IRAN-RUSSIE |
| Mots Clefs | Zone géopolitique / Sphère d’influence : RUSSIE |

| Mots Clefs | Décideurs : OBAMA |
| Mots Clefs | Enjeux : Rétablir les rel. avec les USA & Négociations directes |