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IRAN : AHMADINEJAD, SICK BUT NOT DYING !
27.10.2008

© IRAN-RESIST.ORG – Oct. 27 2009 | Mahmud Ahmadinejad would be sick ! Several rumors notably about some cases of consciousness loss in public were broadcasted for 4 days via officious Iranian sources before they were denied and then partially acknowledged yesterday via the INRA official agency. The regime contributed to inflate such rumors of which it might be the great beneficiary.



The political career of Ahmadinejad is and will always be associated with the nuclear crisis between Iran and the United States. He personifies in the eyes of the world the refusal of nuclear activities suspension.

However we’d rather qualify such reading : the mullahs refuse any suspension only as a preliminary condition for dialogue resumption ! They are besides partisan of a compromise but under their own conditions : warranties of security and the recognition of their regional role ! These are conditions that have nothing to do with the nuclear issue !

In other words, the crisis and the denial Ahmadinejad personifies are an excuse for Teheran to reach its target. Moreover the sanctions imposed by Washington are a way to overturn the steam and force Teheran to moderate its requirements.

It’s in such context that Ahmedinejad played and still plays the agitator part and, as we repeated it several times, if the mullahs win the case (a regional recognition in return for an access via its territory to Central Asia), they won’t need Ahmadinejad anymore but a representative that would be more conciliatory.

An access to Central Asia amounts to subtract this gas tank to the Chinese hold and handicap the Chinese growth. The stakes are colossal for the industrial and oilfield big American groups. Via its agitator Ahmadinejad, Teheran played the card of the refusal of any offered compromise and currently the regime finds itself in position of force faced with the Bush administration as it needs such agreement to end its mandate with a strong peaceful act. This would be synonymous of victory for Mc Cain and financial support from the industrial and oilfield groups that would benefit from the impacts of this agreement. Furthermore the Bush administration relentlessly contacts the mullahs to get such agreement. For its part, Teheran is preparing the ground to get a credible and gentle exit of Ahmadinejad out of the political stage, due to overwork !

We might believe that the progress made to get such agreement is still not sturdy enough because the regime often changes the content of the rumors about the president’s health. On the Saturday 25th, Ahmadinejad participated in an official commemoration and his images were broadcasted in the Medias. However few hours after the arrival of the latest Teheran emissary in New York, the regime implied that such image didn’t exist as if the government was attempting to hide some health accident. But later the Medias photographed again a healthy and smiling Ahmadinejad during the reception of the new Uruguay ambassador, during the reception of the new Pakistan ambassador and then with a much tired look at the Council of Ministers. He pushes himself too hard !

He may turn “sick” again if the emissary of the regime comes to a pre-agreement with the Bush administration on the basis of the sanctions relaxation, the nuclear file restoration from the Security Council to the AEIA, the release of the Pasdaran militiamen who are detained in Iraq since December 2007 and the rambling classification of the accusations against Rafsandjani (and the other fellows) regarding the bomb attack against the Jewish center in Buenos Aires.

From their side, the mullahs would firstly lift their reserve towards the Iraqi-American pact. Then they would ask to Moqtada Sadr (who is currently attending a Qum religious school to be ordained Ayatollah) to issue a fatwa to put an end to hostilities in Iraq. Yasser Hashemi, the youngest son of Rafsandjani, is besides in Iraq in order to meet Talabani and prepare such reversal that could be used as a release mechanism for negotiations to get a so to speak official agreement.

If the mullahs were sure that this kind of pre-agreement was secure, the friend Mahmud would be already sent to the over-workers heaven ! However it would be risky to raise him already to the rank of overwork martyr (with a magnificent national funeral) because he still remains useful to the regime in a situation of parliamentary opposition with his moderate successor and he is also a democratic means for the regime to shirk his new post-agreement commitments. Thus he is sick but not dying (such as the regime he represents).

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