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Iran - Lebanon : The Hezbollah will not attempt a coup !

The Lebanon is once more under siege because of the Hezbollah. Some consider the situation to be a civil war, while others consider that the Hezbollah have made a coup [1] creating a Shiite state similar to the Mullah regime in Tehran. Either analysis indicates a misinterpretation of the Hezbollah and its mission.

The primary mission of the Hezbollah is to create a permanent menace over Lebanon’s future : they are somewhat of a life-insurance policy for the Mullah regime. The theory is that if you poke the Mullahs then they’ll throw the Hezbollah at you. However, the Hezbollah’s force is to be only a threat and not to take power to face elections and the economic challenge that goes with it. The Hezbollah does not seek power to rule, for they would risk failure, but to be a sniper in the heart of a political system that has not been modelled to assimilate them.

It is, therefore, silly to compare the situation to a coup resulting in the establishment of a Shiite state. However, the Hezbollah, an Arab branch of the Pasdaran will remain a permanent nuisance, prepared to attempt periodic hits in order to destabilize the region within the interests of Tehran.

Their demonstrations of force has different forms, but the final result is that the Hezbollah will strike to obtain larger privileges and destabilize the institutions to make the vulnerable in preparation of their next strike. The Hezbollah’s strength has grown with their participation in the Lebanese Parliament. Without this very minor presence its sniper role would have weakened.

The pretext for their actual coup de force is the Siniora administration’s refusal to allow them to start a Hezbollah owned telecommunications firm which would allow them to tap into the Lebanese government’s communications. The pretext would be derisory if it were not a goal to point out the government’s weakness and therefore, affirm their position as a menace.

This pretext also allows the Hezbollah to cease its strike a certain point in order to remain just a sniper with a mysterious agenda and not that of a political alternative to Lebanon’s ongoing political crisis. Therefore, if the government had not reacted negatively to their telecommunications project, they would have found another pretext to strike, especially that it serves Tehran’s interests primarily. The order of the Hezbollah’s latest manifestation came directly from the Mullahs in Tehran.

At present, engaged on the terrain in Iraq in opposition to the United States, the Mullahs are seeking to show their capacity to plunge the region in a new crisis with rudimentary means but with an astounding expansion of their influence. The Hezbollah will therefore, continue slowly to gain power and play its role of the sniper.

In order to put an end to Hezbollah’s nuisance, they should be barred from the Lebanese Parliament and Iranian financing which would stop if the Mullahs were chased from power. Alas, the American diplomacy seeks an entente with the Mullahs and not their end in the Middle East. Thus, we have not heard a reaction from the U.S. and no spectacular naval humanitarian operation as per in the Balkans was launched in Lebanon. Such an action would be wishful thinking for it has no geopolitical reality. They will let the Hezbollah continue their nuisance without weakening them, for once that Bush or Obama would reach an agreement with the Mullahs, they would then become their own “instrument.”

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The french version of this article :
- Iran-Liban : Le Hezbollah ne fera aucun Coup d’Etat !
- (10 MAI 2008)

| Mots Clefs | Terrorismes : Hezbollah |
| Mots Clefs | Zone géopolitique / Sphère d’influence : Liban |
| Mots Clefs | Enjeux : Rôle régional de l’Iran |

[1Some consider the situation to be a civil war, while others consider that the Hezbollah have made a coup… | Amongst them Antoine Basbous who while criticizing the Hezbollah, inflates the statistics on their military and financial capacity in order to affirm that this creation of the Mullahs is an “unconditional” actor in Lebanon. He also neglects explaining that Hezbollah is before all a terrorist group and founded in such a purpose. The Mullahs strive on such analysis, depicting a terrifying image of a terrorist group and labelling them as “unconditional” serves their agenda. They recently ordered a similar article from Georges Malbrunot of Le Figaro.