Suspect slogans | If we assist in the green revolution demonstrations that were organized those past days by the movie-maker Mohsen Makhmalbaf, author of an Islamist assassination under the Shah’s regime and early Islamist revolutionary, we hear screaming “death to Khamenei”, the official number one of the regime, the official guarantor of the religious nature of the regime, and we hear also “death to Ahmadinejad”, the president of the Islamic Republic. Then we could naively think that by aiming those both number ones, the authors of the slogans and the organizers aim the whole regime.

EDC | There’s nothing less true because Ahmadinejad is not the equivalent of the president of the Republic in France or in the United States and Khamenei is far from being the number one of the regime. The one who disposes of every power is the for life president of the Expediency Discernment Council of the Regime -of the Supreme Guide’s guardianship (EDC). Rafsanjani who is in control of this organization that was created for him by Khomeini -his half-brother- decides of each main lines of the Islamic Republic in every field.

The EDC includes every founding members of the regime such as the so-called moderate Mussavi or even Jannati, the mullah in charge of validating the candidates for the several elections of this so-called republic. Everything is decided at the EDC : who can be a candidate, who will be declared as the winner.

Whatever remains is a politically correct decorum in which the president, ministers and members of Parliament play to the democracy and give a popular and democratic aspect to the decisions that are taken in a collegial way by Rafsanjani and those who were considered in 1988 as worthy of being part of this discrete and fixed decision-makers’ club.

Khamenei and the EDC | An important precision is necessary : Khamenei, the official number one of the regime, the one we insult in the streets is not part of the EDC ! He wasn’t on the beginning and he never joined it while others -mullahs, Pasdaran and Bassidjis- joined over the years. The latest one to arrive is the militiaman Firuzabadi, former commander of the Bassidj, current staff leader of every armed forces of the regime. So much so that to set foot in this club, Khamenei resorted to a marriage between his younger son, the mullah Motjaba, and the daughter of Gh.-A. Haddad-ADEL, the Islamist ideologist who is one of the permanent members of the EDC. Marriage is besides a political tool that is prized by the regime.

Among other great absentees, we can quote Khatami, the official kind one of the regime, and the current president, Ahmadinejad, who can otherwise assist in some meetings if they concern the president ! I.e. when he has to be given directives from the EDC.

By screaming down with this one or with another one, we thus don’t call into question the center of the regime’s decisions but two powerless employees who are set up as bad scapegoats by 4 political rivals -Rafsanjani, Mussavi, Rezai and Karrubi- who are as if by great chance for life members of the EDC.

Actually, by screaming down with Khamenei, far from destroying the regime, we will provide it the means to reinforce because in September 2007, Rafsanjani was elected President of the Experts Assembly, organism that is charged of supervising the activity of the Supreme Guide and also naming his successor in case of death or disability. Actually the regime is giving a popular and even democratic legitimacy to the nomination of another Guide.

Motive of such focalization on Khamenei | It’s not question of an internal war inside the regime because without Khamenei, Rafsanjani would have never been able to become the sprawling boss of the regime via the EDC. In 1989, as he was then a powerless small mullah in the clergy, Rafsanjani could have disappeared from the hierarchy of the regime after Khomeini’s death -his half-brother and protector- as he was pushed away by the appointed successors of the latter, very well placed ayatollahs in the Shiite Iranian clergy. He dues his current power to the fact that he eliminated his rivals who were however selected by Khomeini to succeed him inside a “Guardianship High Council” by imposing his friend Khamenei, a man with no network, no clan and no danger via a fake testament that was written with the complicity of Ahmad, the son, secretary and scribe of Khomeini. This is how Rafsanjani could thrive and become via the EDC the real successor of Khomeini. He preserved this power throughout years and now Khamenei occupies the position of Supreme Guide.

The motive of such operation that appears against Khamenei is not the result of an internal war but of an external aggression. Since years, to contest against the legitimacy of the regime, the American leaders and experts insist in their speeches on the popular and democratic illegitimacy of the Guide who is considered as a non-elected entity.

Green revolution | This is what the regime needs to correct by deposing the current guide Khamenei further to the so-called popular protests we call green revolution : the regime will thus state that the Guide is an emanation from Muslim people, submitted to its will. This green revolution contains in itself the solution to every problem. This is the great lottery for the regime : it is making again its -internal- revolution to give a new breath of legitimacy to the Islamic Revolution and its rulers… It revives the myth of reforming ability of the regime and of its election democracy. It hopes thus to push back definitely the danger of a counter-revolution… In the meantime, it regenerates its basic structures, in particular the key position of the Guide that becomes democratic !

Future of the regime | Apparently such cosmetic operation will also need to make evolve the position of Guide toward the “High Council of 3 Ayatollahs”, what Rafsanjani didn’t wish at his beginnings. As ayatollah nowadays, he can sit there with at least one ally, what will allow him to preserve the advantage he had on the clergy hierarchy with Khamenei into this game. The collegial form which appear as more democratic because it is pluralist will have another advantage : it will install a way of indecision -another so-called clan war- at the visible summit of the State and it will allow the regime to add another layer of opacity to the commanding chain in order to fully satisfy a regime that is based on blackmail and not on dialogue.

It is thus advised to be careful when we hear speeches that are apparently antifascist from the new lobbyists of the regime who are militantly in favor of the green revolution with slogans that are solely hostile to Ahmadinejad or to Khamenei.

For the time being | Such operation allows however to locate every agent of Rafsanjani’s network who dispose of a free access to Medias to hit Khamenei. We find among them the founder of the Pasdaran, Sazgara, or else the Bassidj intelligence agent and founder member of the Hezbollah’s Iranian branch, Amir-Farshad Ebrahimi, who both pretend to be exiled.

Those both declared Mussavists were interviewed by Delphine Minoui in an article dedicated to the younger son of the Supreme Guide, Motjaba Khamenei, to whom we ascribe the leading of the Bassidj and its recent repressions to keep up the stake of his daddy. But there’s even a week ago, nobody heard about Motjaba, a mullah moreover, as a chief of the Bassidj ! Apparently his appearance on the scene was an operation of the regime to reduce the charges against his father : to soften the useful sacrifice of an obliging ally, operation that always not well-considered by mafia circles, we focus on his turbulent son, Motjaba -of whom no official photo exists.

Khamenei senior will be deposed because of serious professional misconduct and Khamenei junior will be the scapegoat for repressions, the so-called fraud and everything else. The green revolution will thus let down a puppet Guide and a Bassidj leader who doesn’t exist ! Anybody could have played this role of faceless culprit and the commander of the Bassidj remains safe !

This is what the regime wants but it’s not sure he obtains it because all those who scream “death to Khamenei” in the streets of Tehran don’t evolve in the secret of the mullahs and really hope for the end of the regime. This is the only one positive aspect of this operation : to ensure its survival, the regime acts in a borderline way.

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The french version of this article :
 Iran : Le régime doit sacrifier Khamenei
 (11 JUILLET 2009 )