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IRAN : AN APPEASEMENT PROMPTED BY SANCTIONS
20.07.2009

© IRAN-RESIST.ORG – JULY 20 2009 | There’s a week ago, the G8 gave two months to the mullahs to accept the offer of the Six on pain of reinforcement on the sanctions against Iran. In answer, Tehran just changed its nuclear program director by naming Ali Akbar Salehi who advocates dialogue after a provisory suspension of enrichment in accordance with the demands of the Six’s offer. Tehran is really scared of new sanctions.



If Western medias still mention the danger of any Iranian nuclear bomb by prevailing regional worries, for the mullahs, the nuclear crisis comes down to a single worrying reality : the growing impact of the sanctions on their economy that is already weakened by years of approximate management.

Tehran needs absolutely to put an end to the American banking sanctions that were implemented to dissuade them to keep on their nuclear program. This became a necessity : the gas field has run out of investment and thus Iran cannot exploit the South Pars gas field it shares with Qatar. The Arab neighbor will soon start to pump gas that is normally allotted to Iran.

Other ravages of the sanctions, the car manufacturer Iran Khodro, formerly Iran National - jewel of the Iranian industrial success in the 60’s and the 70’s - a company we estimate to worth 10 billion dollars disposes of debts that are equivalent to its value. According to the rumors, Iran Khodro will shortly go bankrupt after 12 months of vain efforts, a cutbacks of 20 000 jobs and the injection of millions of dollars to save it. 35 000 remaining jobs, 6 billion dollars of shares that are detained by the private sector and also by the group’s banks are brought into play. With the loss of indirect jobs, this represents around 3% of the Iranian employees who are spared by unemployment !

We can mention in addition 10 days of revolt that weakened the bases of the regime. This explains the small shift regarding nuclear program with the arrival of Ali Akbar Salehi who praises for dialogue after enrichment suspension. His leanings match exactly with the proposal that is specified in the Six’s offer and in which it was also question of sanctions suspension during negotiation time. Tehran needs to have a break.

We imagine it wants to catch its breath for long time by taking advantage of such break to fill up with investments. But this won’t be possible because since the new director of Iran’s atomic program told about appeasement and dialogue, Western diplomats highlighted some Iranian ballistic works that are carried out safe from AEIA inspections and the “possibility for Iran to test a new nuclear weapon within six months !”

Such statement, originally American, specifies that “however Iran isn’t on the way of realizing such tests as long as it doesn’t wish apparently any direct confrontation with the West or any probable Israeli strike !”

In other words, dilatory maneuvers are out of question. Westerners and particularly Americans won’t let the mullahs recuperate economically before questioning their new commitments. If Tehran would follow their path, we would thus see a new and more serious accusation emerge and which would immediately lead to new sanctions.


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The french version of this article :
- Iran : Un apaisement provoqué par les sanctions
- (20 JUILLET 2009)

| Mots Clefs | Enjeux : Sanctions Ciblées en cours d’application |

| Mots Clefs | Instituions : Politique Economique des mollahs |

| Mots Clefs | Nucléaire 2 : AIEA : Yukiya Amano |
| Mots Clefs | Zone géopolitique / Sphère d’influence : USA |
| Mots Clefs | Décideurs : P5+1 (les Six) |