It’s the second time in 6 months that Maliki goes to Iran at the head of an important ministerial delegation. His latest visit on June 2008 had to trigger the reprisal of direct and official negotiations between Teheran and Washington in Bagdad. Both parties mentioned it in releases before Teheran retracts due to the Russian pressures. Maliki has just revived this process whose interest resides in the fact to make official the negotiations.

Actually, as it was admitted by Kissinger in 2008, Iranian and American negotiators already met on various occasions. However in order to lead to an official agreement it is essential that they meet within an official framework and the dialogue about the security of Iraq is a perfect excuse to break the ice.

To encourage Teheran to grab the thrown line, Washington even prepared the ground with the bait of the future of the Ashraf camp, residence base of the People’s Mujahidin. Teheran demands its closure followed by a humiliating expulsion of its residents. 6 months ago, few time before Maliki’s visit, Washington implied that it would let the Iraqis decide of the Mujahidin’s fate. The Iraqis then evoked the closure of that camp and the expulsion of the group. After the failure of the attempts of negotiations reprisal in June, Washington returned to the attack with its Libyan offer that was expressed by Condoleezza Rice. This offer was preceded of a new evocation of the camp closure.

In the present case, it was on mid-December that Washington started to evoke the transfer to the Iraqis of Ashraf’s responsibility. Few days later, on the 20 December, Nouri Al Maliki informed the Medias of his decision to go to Iran on the 27 December.

It’s at that moment we assisted in a great agitation from the Mujahidin who got worried of the seriousness of the threat against their friends based in Iraq. At the same moment, we observed a renewed activity of the group’s appointed lobbyists. The Mujahidin thought they managed to dodge the danger when the UNO that was pressured by their lobbyists spoke in their favor and when the Iraqi government promised to respect the Geneva Convention regarding their case. However the Mujahidin didn’t get out of trouble because they remain an asset of the American game : so they have to worry again about their future because yesterday, day before the arrival of the Iraqi Prime Minister, the Iraqi government announced that it would maintain the decision it made last September to close the camp and expel its residents.

This is a significant present for Teheran. However it is necessary to specify that the mullahs don’t wish to get back their former partners of the Islamic revolution who would remind the Iranians of the mistake this revolution was. The mullahs simply wish to be certain that Washington has given up the rehabilitation of this group to make it a pawn for a future regime change. However such confidence is perceived by the mullahs as a welcome present and not as a stake of the understanding Washington wishes to enter into. The Americans know it perfectly : such stake which is vital for Teheran means the recognition of its regional role through the granting of a total impunity to the regime and its militias, especially the Hamas and the Hezbollah.

This explains the American choice to delay Maliki’s visit from the 27 December – date of the beginning of the bombardments against the Hamas- to the 3 January – date of the land offensive against this mullahs’ offshore ally, weakened by a week of intensive bombardments. Maliki comes on behalf of Bush with a big Iraqi carrot and also a big stick for the Hamas. Bush hopes to annihilate a part of the mullahs’ regional nuisance threat to make their requirements go down by a notch. So to show his determination, he even explicitly lent his support to the land offensive against Gaza.

If the mullahs accept this offer, the Mujahidin will be sacrificed but the mullahs will be at the mercy of Washington … That’s why they no doubt refuse, urging the Hamas to resist a stick that may become very big [1].

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The french version of this article :
 Iran : Le nouveau chef de la CIA appartient à la commission Baker
 (7 JANVIER 2009)